A Price Check on The Trump Admin

A brief overview of prices for everyday grocery items and energy for the first four months of the

During his presidential campaign Donald J. Trump repeatedly promised to lower prices on groceries and energy starting from day one of his administration.

On the day of his inauguration he signed an executive order - ‘Delivering Emergency Price Relief for American Families and Defeating the Cost-of-Living Crisis,’ that was meant to lower the cost of living for most Americans.

This executive order was one of several that President Trump signed in front of a live audience at Capital One Arena with much pomp and circumstance.

I’ve extracted the specific promises Trump made in this executive order.

• Pursuing appropriate actions to: lower the cost of housing and expand housing supply

• Eliminate unnecessary administrative expenses and rent-seeking practices that increase healthcare costs

• Eliminate counterproductive requirements that raise the costs of home appliances

• Create employment opportunities for American workers, including drawing discouraged workers into the labor force

• Eliminate harmful, coercive “climate” policies that increase the costs of food and fuel.

How is Trump Doing?

The Price of Food

Here’s a short list of common grocery items - rice, wheat, along with some dairy and meat are part of the farm subsidy program which keeps the prices of many items lower and more stable.

As far as groceries are concerned there’s been a slight increase in prices across the board for nearly everything.

Source - FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)

The price of each item has its own entry in FRED.

This is a Decoding Fox News exclusive.

*Both tomatoes and oranges fluctuate in price depending on the season.

I plan on doing a year-to-year comparison of most fresh produce by January 2026 to account for seasonal changes in price. For example a tomato purchased in December is most likely imported while the same fruit (tomatoes are technically a fruit) purchased in July or August is most likely grown by an American producer.

Energy

During his campaign Trump promised to get energy costs cut in half within six months of his new administration. So far the average national price of kilowatt-hour in the U.S. has increased. The vertical bar is the last month of Biden’s presidency.

Electricity rates vary from region to region.

Gasoline

This chart is based on the national average for a gallon of gasoline. The following chart is from GasBuddy.com.

The last price from the Biden Administration was approx. $3.00 a gallon. The latest price on this chart dated 5/15/25 was $3.18.

Crude oil is a global commodity. The price of a barrel of crude oil is based on supply and demand. The price of gasoline is also determined by refining capacity and market forces (supply and demand).

Regardless of anything Donald J. Trump says the U.S. president cannot dictate the price of gasoline or the global price of crude oil.

The U.S. was producing record breaking levels of crude oil during the end of the Biden Administration. OPEC, a cartel of oil producing nations, produces about twice the amount of the global oil supply than the United States.

Gasoline prices also vary from region to region based on a number of different factors including state taxes.

Unemployment

The overall unemployment rate has increased slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%. As the year progresses I’ll break the unemployment rate into various demographics.

Trump repeatedly lied throughout his campaign when he claimed that Black unemployment hit the lowest rate during his first term.

Black unemployment hit the lowest rate ever recorded in the history of the United States during the Biden Administration.

Mortgages

The average rate of a 30-year-fixed mortgage dropped from 7.04% to 6.75% since Trump was inaugurated.

Home prices - national average

The price has slightly increased from 323.353 to 324.924 in February 2025 the last month with available data. There is a two-month lag time in the data that is reported.

A quick breakdown of the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index from Investopedia.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are a group of indices that measure real estate or housing prices. They track changes in residential home prices throughout the United States. The group is made up of three different indices. They were developed in the 1980s by three economists and are now managed by Standard & Poor's (S&P). The data used is based on information from properties that have been purchased or sold at least twice. Results from the indices are published every month.

This chart is based on the Index Jan 2000=100, not seasonally adjusted.

The index rate is a bit complicated to explain in something that is meant to be a quick overview of prices. The chart indicates the prices are going up which is the most important thing to know.

Housing starts - (construction of new homes)

In the last month of the Biden admin the rate was 407 (thousands of units) which has dropped to 371 for March 2025 the last month with available data.

Automobiles

Trump didn’t mention automobiles in his executive order but I thought I would add it since it’s a major purchase for most households. The Trump administration’s tariff policies could have a dramatic effect on prices for cars and trucks by the end of the year.

The following chart, also from FRED, is based on the Consumer Price Index not a dollar amount. The rate went from 125.076 in December 2024 to 125.917 for April 2025.

The units on the chart are based on Index Dec 1997 = 100, seasonally adjusted.

Healthcare

I’m going to wait until the end of the year to track this metric as there’s so many things that factor into the cost of healthcare including any changes to Medicaid and Medicare programs.

Premiums increase once a year so it makes more sense to study this after the next ACA (Affordable Care Act) increases in the fall.

Home Appliances

Trump’s tariff policies could cause major prices increases on some appliances. This will be another metric that I will track at the start of the new year. This one is also a bit tricky to track as the cost of consumer refrigerator can vary from $400 - $10,000.

I plan to update this list periodically throughout the Trump administration.